The situation with the pandemic is better than it was last year. People are vaccinated and theaters have been opened and people are still going to the movies, despite a lot of new titles being available on streaming services. So, how will all of this affect Spider-Man and the MCU watching order?
Spider-Man: No Way Home’s financials are still largely unknown, which is somewhat strange, seeing how such movies usually disclose an estimated budget before the release. We do have an unconfirmed sum of $180 million as the film’s budget, but that information is not official, so we might be a bit off on that, although not much. Seeing how the movie will rely a lot on special effects and the cast is absolutely huge (and full of stars), we assume that the budget might even be between $200 and $250 million, but we’ll just have to wait and see.
Now, based on that, can the movie really turn a profit under such circumstances? The rule of Hollywood movies is simple – a movie has to earn at least double the amount of its budget (the filming budget and the marketing budget, which is around 50% of the filming budget) to break even, and more than that to become profitable. In the case of Spider-Man: No Way Home, this means that the movie would have to earn around $550 or $600 million to break even and more to be profitable. With the pandemic and the restrictions going on, early projections put the film’s domestic profit between $375–525 million, which means that it would certainly turn a profit once you add the international numbers. But, there are two issues.
Firstly, only two Hollywood movies – F9 and No Time to Die – managed to earn more than $700 million at the box office this year (and they were both released earlier, when the pandemic numbers were better); comparatively, Shang-Chi earned “only” $431,650,284 globally and it was a big hit for Marvel, while the recent Eternals are nowhere near these numbers, for example. Also, there’s the fact that Spider-Man is aiming much higher than both of these movies, even higher than No Time to Die, that’s for sure.
The second potential problem could be the new Omicron variant of the virus. We know very little about it at this time, but it has the potential to cause trouble. Now, we don’t think that a new lockdown is plausible, but people will certainly be discouraged to go into full projection halls with a more contagious strain out there. Still, this is only a hypothetical problem; the first one is very realistic.
So, can Spider-Man turn a profit? Well, if the initial projections prove to be correct and if the new Omicron variant doesn’t cause further issues, it certainly can and probably will, but it will have a tough task, seeing how other blockbusters didn’t even come close to the numbers Spider-Man needs to turn a profit.
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